Benfica vs RB Leipzig Match Preview and Prediction
On Tuesday evening (UK time), RB Leipzig will run out to play Benfica at 8:00pm. This is a Champions League game.
See the drama unfold live on BT Sport Extra.
Read on for preview, match prediction and recommended bet.
The sections below will describe where the value is for us to get stuck in to. Frog works through the numbers below.
Betting Odds for Benfica vs RB Leipzig
Unibet will give you 2.75 about Benfica; Bet Victor are offering 3.6 for the draw; Betfair Sportsbook go 2.62 about RB Leipzig.
Turning to the Total Goals lines, the top price for Over 2.5 goals is 1.8 with Bet365. The most attractive price for Under 2.5 goals is 2.1 via Betfair Sportsbook.
Frog has also looked at the prices for the BTTS market. "Yes" can be backed at 1.62 with William Hill. If you don't like that, "No" is currently available at 2.45 with Bet Victor.
Head To Head
Benfica played RB Leipzig in 2017, in what was a Emirates Cup game. The winners were RB Leipzig with a score of 2-0.
This was the first time these sides have met, in ten years of data.
In their recent form over the last year, Benfica have played 62 matches. They have 45 wins; 5 draws; and 12 losses. This form gives them a recent Win-Draw-Loss rate of: 72%-8%-19%.
Over this 12-month period, they average 2.45 goals per match. They have conceded an average of 0.92.
A look at their home record in this time. They have a win rate of 74% (23 wins) in their 31 home fixtures. 9% (3) of these home games have been a draw, with the remaining 16% (5) resulting in a loss for the home side.
On average they have scored 2.87 goals when at home in this last year; they have conceded 0.9.
Basically, Frog is struggling to look past a Benfica victory given the odds available for them. Now we need to determine if they represent value.
RB Leipzig have played 53 times in the last year. They have 29 wins; 12 draws; and 12 losses. This gives them a recent Win-Draw-Loss rate of: 54%-22%-22%.
During this recent year, they average 1.83 goals per match. They have conceded an average of 1.04.
When away from home in this period, they have a win rate of 58% (14 wins) from the latest 24 away fixtures. 16% (4) of these away games have been a draw, with the remaining 25% (6) being a loss as the away side.
On average they have scored 1.92 times when away in this period. They have conceded 1.04.
In their last ten matches, across all competitions, they have averaged 1.9 goals per match; they have won 5 of these matches. The total number of times both RB Leipzig and the opposition have scored is 8 out of the ten; and there has been 9 matches with over 2.5 goals.
And they have scored in each of their last 8 matches.
While there are some reasonable metrics in their history, readers will not be alone if they are nervous about betting on the away side in this game. Frog needs a bigger price than this.
Frog's betting tip for Benfica vs RB Leipzig
Frog goes with Benfica for this one, at odds of 2.75 available with Unibet...