São Paulo vs Grêmio Match Preview and Prediction
Grêmio will go to Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo to take on São Paulo on Sunday 18 October. The kick-off time is 1:00am (UK) for this Serie A match-up.
This match has no UK TV coverage. Check Frog The Gambler's live score page for updates throughout the game.
Read on for full preview, match prediction and betting tip.
FTG projections are very close to the market prices.
Betting Odds for São Paulo vs Grêmio
São Paulo can be backed at 2.05 with Bet Victor. The draw is 3.4 with Bet365. Grêmio are currently 3.75 with Bet365.
Reviewing the Total Goals lines, the best price for Over 2.5 goals is 2.38 with Betfair Sportsbook. The standout price for Under 2.5 goals is 1.62 with 888sport.
And here are the current best odds for the BTTS offerings. "Yes" can be backed at 2.0 with Betfair Sportsbook. "No" can be taken at 1.85 with Bet Victor.
Head To Head
São Paulo played Grêmio in December. It was a Serie A game. The winners were Grêmio by a score of 3-0. And Luciano scored two goals for the away side.
In the last decade of FTG data, the two sides have played 18 times. São Paulo have emerged victorious in 5 of them; Grêmio have won 8 of them. There have been 5 draws.
Over the course of these matches, there has been an average of 1.94 goals during regulation play. São Paulo score an average of 0.89 and Grêmio score an average of 1.06.
Specifically looking at home ground performance, whichever side has been home has won 27% of the time. The away side has won 44% of the time.
In their recent form over the last year, they have played 27 matches. They have 12 wins; 6 draws; and 9 losses. This gives São Paulo a recent Win-Draw-Loss rate of: 44%-22%-33%.
During this recent year, they average 1.33 goals per match. They have conceded an average of 1.07.
Let's look at their record at home over the same time-frame. They have a win rate of 61% (8 wins) from 13 home fixtures. 15% (2) of these home games have been a draw, with the remaining 23% (3) ending in a loss for the home team.
While playing at home over this recent year, their average number of goals scored is 1.38 and they have conceded 0.77 on average.
As far as their recent activity goes, both home and away, they have a total of 18 goals in their last ten matches; 4 of these matches have been wins. Of those ten matches, 6 of them have seen both sides score and the total number of matches with over 2.5 goals scored is 8 games over this same period.
And they have scored in their last 4 matches.
At the moment, Grêmio have 3 points in the league. They are in 1st position.
There has been 31 matches played by the away team over the recent 12 months. They have 20 wins; 1 draw; and 10 losses. Therefore, Grêmio have won 64%, drawn 3%, and lost 32% of their recent matches.
In this time, they have scored 1.68 goals on average per match; while conceding 1.0 goals on average.
Specifically on their recent away record, they have a win rate of 57% (8 wins) from their last 14 away fixtures. 0% (0) of these away games have been a draw, with the remaining 42% (6) ending in a loss.
While playing away from home over this recent year, their average number of goals scored is 1.21 and they have conceded 1.21 on average.
Their recent performance, both home and away, shows that they have a total of 21 goals in their last ten matches and this has led to their current win rate of 80%. The total number of times both Grêmio and the other team have scored in these games is 4 out of the ten. There have been 5 matches with over 2.5 goals.
They have scored at least once in each of their last 6 matches.
Frog's betting tip for São Paulo vs Grêmio
Looking at this match-up, Frog is going with the Yes option in the Both Teams To Score market. Betfair Sportsbook make it a 2.0 shot that both sides will score.Importantly though, this does not look like massive value so it is certainly not a sure thing.